How Donald Trump’s Deportation Plan Would Work

Donald Trump’s promised plan to deport illegal immigrants en masse, known as “Operation Aurora,” could now become reality, with immigrant advocacy groups warning millions of families are at risk of being forcibly removed from the country.
Removals of illegal and undocumented immigrants, many of whom have been in the United States for decades, has been a cornerstone of the president-elect’s platform, with a promise that Nov. 5 would be “liberation day” from previous border policies.
Some polling during the campaign did show majority support for mass deportations among voters, but exit polls on Election Day showed stronger support for pathways to legal status for undocumented migrants over deporting them, while immigration slipped down voters’ priority lists.
Both CNN’s and NBC’s exit polls showed 56 percent of voters wanted legal pathways for migrants already here, with 21 percent of that group identifying as Trump supporters.
The American Immigration Council estimates Trump’s plan, potentially targeting between 11 and 14 million people, would cost the U.S. upwards of $315 billion if fully realized.
While Trump cannot act on these plans until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025 at the earliest, immigrants rights groups, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), have been preparing for his return for months and are vowing to fight the operation in the courts.
“That could take the form of an executive order,” Noreen Shah, director of government affairs at the ACLU’s equality division, told Newsweek before Election Day. “I think that he would quickly try to sow fear and a sense of impending chaos in the American public.”
During his last term in the White House, Trump faced multiple lawsuits from groups, including the ACLU, over policies such as family separations and “Remain in Mexico.” Some of these were successful in halting programs and Shah said the organization was already planning to file similar suits if needed.
Trump’s flagship mass deportation policy has been a core pillar of the GOP’s platform in this year’s election cycle, though not without opposition.
Latino leaders warned Trump’s proposed mass deportation plan could lead to a return of widespread family separations, with an estimated one in three Latinos at risk of being targeted.
The hardline policy would result in families “being ripped apart”, they said, raising concerns about the impact on human rights and the social consequences of such an extensive crackdown on undocumented immigrants, according to the immigration and criminal justice advocacy group FWD.us.
Karoline Leavitt, a Trump campaign spokesperson previously told Newsweek that Trump would “make provisions for mixed status families.”
“He will restore his effective immigration policies, implement brand new crackdowns that will send shockwaves to all the world’s criminal smugglers, and marshal every federal and state power necessary to institute the largest deportation operation of illegal criminals, drug dealers, and human traffickers in American history,” Leavitt added.
The American Immigration Council’s analysis showed Mexicans made up the highest number of undocumented migrants in the U.S., at over 4.7 million. The estimated cost of removing all Mexicans in the country without legal status was $7.3 billion.
But it wouldn’t just be Mexicans. Migrants from Central and South America, as well as countries like Canada and Nigeria, could be targered as well.
The AIC’s data showed over 75 countries who could be asked to receive deportees under the Trump plan.
The three states which could be impacted the most are California, with 2.1 million undocumented migrants, Texas with at least 1.8 million, and Florida, with just over 1 million. Many other states reported undocumented populations in the tens of thousands.
Newsweek previously reported that laborers across a variety of industries could be forced to leave.
Farmers have raised concerns about a loss of migrant workers, who are vital for their businesses from Florida up to Wisconsin, while the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) warned the country’s economy would suffer as fewer American-born citizens were entering the job market.
“If you look over the past five years, without immigrants and their children, there would have been no labor force growth in the United States,” Stuart Anderson, NFAP executive director, told Newsweek.
“And that means that without labor force growth, it’s very difficult for a country to have economic growth, and without economic growth, living standards in a country stagnate and potentially even decline.”
The ACLU claims the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 will be a key tool in achieving Trump’s aim.
The 226-year-old law came about when U.S. leaders were afraid of a war with France after the Revolutionary War. It allows authorities to remove noncitizens during a declared war or if the U.S. faces an invasion. It was used against the British in the War of 1812, as well as during World War I, and then World War II against those of Japanese descent.
Trump and his allies have long claimed that the number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. constitutes such an “invasion.”
“The Trump campaign, Trump surrogates, have talked about wanting to go after people based on their nationality,” Shah told Newsweek. “That’s what the Alien Enemies Act sets up.”
She said that even those in the U.S. legally, but without full citizenship, could also be targeted, describing it as “potentially unprecedented and potentially really far reaching”.
Eric Ruark, director of research for NumbersUSA, which advocates for immigration reform, said in a statement that this was what Americans wanted.
“Trump promised to reestablish the rule of law, both at the border and in the interior of the country. This clearly resonated with voters appalled by the Biden-Harris administration’s open border policies, which have brought in the largest number of immigrants — both legal and illegal — of any single-term administration in history,” Ruark said.
“America was on pace to add 35 million new foreign residents in a single decade, an unsustainable increase that’d make it harder for American citizens to afford housing, secure good-paying jobs, and improve their quality of life.”
Immigration advocacy groups told Newsweek they were at the ready to fight Trump’s deportation plans.
“I’ve sued every president since George W. Bush, including Presidents Obama and Biden. We have won cases before judges of all stripes, including those appointed by President-elect Trump,” Karen Tumlin, founder and director of Justice Action Center, said in a statement.
“We have a simple message for President-elect Trump or his deputies if they decide to make good on their despicable plans: We will see you in court. And, we have a message of love to immigrant communities, we see you, we are you and we will stand with you.”
Some groups also expressed fear that anti-migrant rhetoric during the election campaign will prompt those in favor of mass deportations to try to take action into their own hands even before Trump takes office.
Some communities have already seen a rise in harassment and intimidation, Shah said.
The ACLU is urging state and city leaders to act before Inauguration Day, saying they had powers to prevent residents from being forcibly removed.
Shah said measures could be introduced to stop federal authorities going after those lawfully present, or who have been in the U.S. for years and had built a life in the country, by implementing plans like those seen for other emergency situations.
“They should prepare for mass deportations because those will wreak havoc on the communities,” she said. “It will mean kids who go to school and their parents are gone and not there to pick them up at the end of the day.
“It could mean that hospitals become places that people are worried about accessing care and when they go to access care, they have to worry about ICE agents or Border Patrol agents waiting outside their door.”